Ethereum (ETH) rose above $2,700 on Tuesday, extending a recovery that began when buyers returned near a key on-chain price level.
The rebound followed a difficult stretch for the cryptocurrency: ETH had slipped below $2,400 last week after the Clarity Act failed to advance in the US Senate, while a Federal Reserve rate hike added to uncertainty across risk assets.
The move back above $2,700 suggests investors were willing to buy the decline. Yet the data behind the rally presents a less uniform picture.
Spot Ether ETF inflows have improved, but deposits to exchanges have also increased, and activity in perpetual futures turned less bullish on Monday.
Those competing signals make the next resistance test important for determining whether ETH can extend its advance.
Buyers return near Ethereum’s realized price
Ethereum’s decline last week brought it closer to its realized price, which stood near $2,310. Realized price estimates ETH’s average cost basis based on the price at which coins last moved on-chain.
Traders often watch it as a broad measure of whether the market is approaching a level where holders may be more inclined to defend their positions.
ETH did not reach $2,310 in the move described, but its drop below $2,400 put that level in view. Buying pressure then pushed the token back above $2,700.
The speed of the recovery suggests that investors treated the pullback as an opportunity, despite concerns surrounding the Clarity Act’s failure and the Fed’s rate decision.
Holding above realized price may support the broader bullish case, but it does not guarantee a continued rally. Ethereum now has to sustain demand at substantially higher prices, where traders who bought the dip may choose to take profits.
US spot Ether ETFs provided one encouraging signal at the end of last week. The funds recorded $143.8 million in net inflows on Friday, snapping a three-day run of outflows.
The inflow continued on Monday, with the funds attracting $147 million. The reversal suggests demand through regulated investment products recovered even as ETH was emerging from its recent decline.
Exchange flows tell a more cautious story. According to CryptoQuant’s ETH Exchange Netflow metric, deposits to crypto exchanges have exceeded withdrawals over the past few days.
Investors commonly move assets to exchanges when they intend to trade or sell them, so persistent net deposits can signal potential selling pressure.
Derivatives activity was supportive over the weekend but became less favorable on Monday.
Ethereum’s Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which compares aggressive buying and selling in perpetual futures, had been trending upward.
Its seven-day moving average moved into positive territory over the weekend, indicating that buyers had become more active.
The latest reading then weakened on Monday, with bearish activity regaining the lead.
That shift does not by itself establish a lasting reversal, but it shows that futures traders became less confident after ETH’s rapid rebound.
The rally also triggered substantial liquidations. CoinGlass reported $181.02 million in ETH liquidations over the past 24 hours, including roughly $143.20 million in short positions.
Short liquidations help explain the strength of a move, but they offer less certainty about what happens once that forced buying fades.
Ethereum technical outlook: Is $2,786 the next test?
Ethereum’s daily chart retains a bullish structure. ETH trades above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the 20-day average near $2,537 supporting the shorter-term trend.
Momentum indicators, however, suggest the advance may be stretched. The Relative Strength Index stands at 67, indicating that Ethereum is yet to enter the overbought territory.
This can accompany a strong uptrend, though it also increases the chance of a pause or pullback as ETH approaches resistance.
The first level to watch on the upside is $2,786, which has capped the latest advance. A sustained move above it could bring $2,894 into focus. Beyond that, the next cited resistance level is $3,177.
Traders will be watching whether ETH can hold a break above resistance, given the mixed signals from exchange flows and futures activity.
If the rally stalls, initial support sits near $2,626. Below that, the $2,544 horizontal level and the 20-day EMA around $2,537 form a closely grouped support area.
A deeper pullback could put $2,431 in focus, followed by the 50-day EMA near $2,356. The 100- and 200-day averages and the prior support band near $2,172 would become relevant if selling intensifies.
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